Democrat Hillary Clinton as favorite part in a possible conflict with the Republican Donald Trump by the White House, but its lead narrows and growing doubt whether the explosive magnate could really become president.
When much of the country still rubs his eyes before the image of Trump as virtual Republican candidate for the White House, polls indicate that Clinton’s lead over him is shortened and is far from the overwhelming victory that many assume.
Former Secretary of State, former senator and former first lady only overcomes the New York billionaire, a newcomer to politics, by 3.1 percentage points, according to the average of polls compiled by the website Real Clear Politics reference.
In the two polls published this week, Clinton leads to Trump by 6 points (CBS / New York Times) and the magnate wins by 3 points (Fox News).
Billionaire shortens distances with the Democrat since May 4, when he became the Republican nominee for the withdrawal of rivals Ted Cruz and John Kasich after his victory in Indiana.
“Trump is no longer in primary opponents, while Clinton himself. She could very well have an uptick in the polls when (Bernie) Sanders leave, “he told Efe Kyle Kondik, an analyst at the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.
However, “if Sanders refused to support or there is some kind of division of the left wing of the party, that could help Trump” he says.
Aware that it is vital that the sooner you start to focus on Trump, Hillary increases pressure on Sanders to leave, but the senator maintains that the Convention will compete until July.
Clinton is hoping that once the candidate is, all Democrats to unite by force to prevent an unpredictable billionaire xenophobic, ultra-nationalist and sexist rhetoric reaches the White House.
The scenario Trump in the Oval Office “scares” 47% of citizens, according to a recent poll by NBC News, and proliferate, as in any other time in US history, articles and campaigns that see his presidency as a catastrophe of unpredictable consequences.
The tycoon is the US presidential candidate with the highest disapproval of history, between 60% and 70% according to the latest Gallup.
That should be enough for Clinton had assured victory in November, but its problem is that it also has unusual rates of disapproval in a presidential candidate of one of the two major parties, about 50% according to Gallup.
A recent and controversial Quinnipiac University poll, which bases its results on the assumption that this year will vote more whites and fewer minorities than in 2012, showed the key that will be mobilizing each group of voters.
If whites are still the most mobilized in these elections, something that has been demonstrated by the sweeping campaigns Trump and Sanders, then mogul beat Clinton in Ohio, while played by one point the also “pendulous” states of Florida and Pennsylvania.
If Trump got to add these three states which won the Republican candidate Mitt Romney in 2012, the victory would be his.
But these are some atypical elections that could also be brought into play states that have traditionally been safe for Republicans and for Democrats.
“The rhetoric of Trump against immigrants could make states like Arizona, Colorado and Missouri are available to the Democrats because of the weight of the Hispanic population,” believes in an article Darrell West, vice president and director of Government Studies at the Brookings Center .
But on the other hand, “Trump strong support among white working-class voters suggests that it could be competitive in the industrial belt states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota,” he says.
The magnate has a great niche voters in white men without higher education, while Clinton won among African Americans, Latinos and women.
All this when there are still six months to the elections half a year in which the social and economic circumstances could shake an already very difficult to predict electoral scenario.
“Trump can win under the circumstances as a weakening economy, a major terrorist attack in the US or a serious outbreak of the virus in the country zika” he said West told Efe.
Thus, although analysts agree that Clinton are favorites, and few dare to say categorically that Donald Trump will not be president of the United States. If anything has become clear this election is that anything is possible.