Many asked not to take seriously Donald Trump. Among them, the Nobel Mario Vargas Llosa Prize for Literature, who called him a “clown”, “demagogue” and “racist”.
Some harbored the hope that Republican voters think again and give him back; others hoped that the party leadership to wrest the nomination operate during the Cleveland convention, even using anti-democratic methods.
However, the time denied to all and is almost certain that Donald Trump will be the Republican candidate for President of the United States. That is no longer in doubt. Today the question is: do succeed occupy the Oval Office?
The disturbing answer is “yes”. The New Yorker magnate is tied for the intention to vote with the favorite to achieve the Democratic nomination, Hillary Clinton, in three key states: Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
According to a Quinnipiac University poll, the former first lady has 43 percent of support in Florida versus 42 percent of Trump, percentages are repeated for both in Pennsylvania. While in Ohio, Trump gets 43 percent of the vote compared to 39 for Clinton.
Since 1960, no presidential candidate has reached the White House without winning at least two of those three states. And although the three, and by wide margins, voters believe that Clinton is smarter than Trump, the citizens of Florida and Ohio believe the tycoon would do a better job on issues such as management of the economy and the fight against terrorism .
After the decline of Ted Cruz and John Kasich, Trump missing less than 200 delegates needed to add the 1237 to officially become the Republican presidential candidate.
On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders is still no match for Clinton, although the former Secretary of State is close to the figure of 2383 delegates needed to claim the candidate, thanks in part to the “superdelegates” elected party officials who can vote in the Democratic convention to be held in July and that mostly support it.
Ambassador Enrique Berruga, who was deputy foreign minister in the first half of the presidential term of Vicente Fox, estimates that, although the main surveys and professional bettors in Las Vegas give a ten points to Clinton on the employer , “most likely it is that Trump will be the next president of the United States.”
The diplomat warns that Hillary will face “three cases of its recent past to be politically and even disqualify through the courts”. The first has to do with the speeches that offered to New York bankers, for which he was paid $ 600,000 over whose content has not revealed.
The second is his responsibility as secretary of state in the case of the attack on the US consulate in Benghazi and the killing of US ambassador in Libya; and finally, the most serious: the misuse of confidential emails to your personal server.
Donald Trump, adds Ambassador Berruga, will not hesitate to use all legal remedies to file legal charges against his rival for violating rules that threaten the national security of the United States.
“This cocktail of nebulous issues can take the race to Hillary Clinton, without even reaching the final ballot. Spend more time facing a trial campaigning, “he concludes.
But how was this “clown, and racist demagogue” can become the most powerful man on the planet? The head has a name and a face: Paul Manafort.
Showman A PRESIDENT
Although the campaign manager Donald Trump is Corey Lewandowsky, a consultant and lobbyist for 43 year-old from Massachusetts, who has really taken up the challenge of making the showman that it fascinates irritating the masses, a serious candidate to act as a formal candidate for President of the United States, is Paul Manafort.
This strategist and lobbyist 67 electoral took over the team in early April magnate with a slogan: “Winning is not enough. What matters it is how and how much you earn, “according to The Washington Post.
His arrival marked the beginning of the best winning streak Trump. He went from winning with 30 percent of the vote to 60 percent levels, which separated the advantage with rivals to make it unattainable.
Manafort has extensive experience in the Republican Party. It was strategist in the campaigns of Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush, through the Black, Manafort, Stone and Kelly consulting.
The firm also conducted lobbying for tobacco companies, the bank Salomon Brothers and Trump casinos. But in the same way he has worked for African guerrillas (the arms dealer Abdul Rahman Al-Assir); and dictators of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos; Democratic Republic of Congo, Mobutu Sese Seko, and Somalia, Siad Barre.
In order to improve its image, and its partners they prepared Manafort these characters before giving interviews to US media, offered lectures or speak before Congress.
Another of those customers disreputable is Victor Yanukovich, the president of Ukraine faced the fury of his own people who accused him of theft and fraud, and organized against the so-called Orange Revolution.
Manafort suggested the Ukrainian dress different, instructed on how to behave at rallies and advised him to hold others accountable for abuses.
Despite the advice, Yanukovich had to flee the country to seek refuge in Russia in 2014 by mass protests against him. His legacy, along with a luxurious mansion with its own zoo, was a civil war that has not yet slowed.
Despite this blip in his career, Manafort is ready “to make the miracle” of conversion Trump. A few weeks ago he appeared in the Assembly Republican National Committee with PowerPoint to say that the magnate “is a winning horse” also against Hillary Clinton.
The strategist argues that the rejection generated Trump “for its extravagant forms” will change throughout the campaign; while “Hillary Clinton’s negatives are because people do not trust her and that idea when installed in public opinion, there is no way to change it.”
And in that transformation, Manafort manages a budget of 20 million dollars for advertising and media strategy.
In addition, Ed Rollins, a veteran political strategist, announced joining the campaign tycoon and political operator. Rollins is recognized in the Republican room for being campaign manager for Ronald Reagan in 1984 and have worked even before the reelection campaign of Richard Nixon.
In addition, the Trump himself revealed who the possible members of his cabinet. In an interview for “The O’Reilly Factor” on Fox News, he said he would consider appointing program as Homeland Security Secretary Rudolph Giuliani, the former mayor of New York creator of the concept of “zero tolerance”; as Attorney General, Governor Chris Christie; and as secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services doctor Ben Carson.
Given this scenario, Mexico should be prepared to face the US president more openly antagonistic national interests from James Polk, who took us half the national territory.
O CUPELS OR NECK
Trump gave reporters Bob Woodward and Robert Costa of The Washington Post a memorandum describing more precisely its blackmail Mexico.
According to the plan, the Mexican government would have to make a single payment of between 5000 and 10,000 million dollars to ensure that it continues the annual flow of remittances amounting to 24.000 million.
If payment is not made, propose an amendment to Section 326 of the Patriot Act to require financial institutions in the US to demand identity documents before someone proposes to open an account or conduct financial transactions, which in the facts would mean the confiscation of remittances.
In addition, other retaliation would include the imposition of trade tariffs, cancellation of visas for tourists and businessmen, as well as the rising cost of visas.
However, from academia he has warned the infeasibility of several of its proposals. For example, the promise-threat to deport all undocumented migrants would have a huge cost.
According to a study by the American Action Forum, the plan would impede the US economy about 2 percent of GDP. Remove about 6.8 million of the more than 11 million migrants living illegally in the United States would cause a drop of up to 623,000 million dollars in private sector production.
Millions of jobs in agriculture, construction and hotel would be free due to lack of legal workers who are willing to do.
Beyond the rants of Vicente Fox, who called him “ignorant, crazy, egocentric, disgusting and false prophet” one day, then apologize and the next give the “Britney-sign,” Mexico must prepare for the “emergency Trump” .
Undersecretary of Population, Migration and Migration Affairs of the Ministry of the Interior, Humberto Roque Villanueva, acknowledged that the eventual arrival of Donald Trump at the White House may have a “negative impact” on migration terms for Mexico.
Personally I am concerned that the administration of Enrique Peña Nieto not see beyond that “negative impact” on migration issues, and lack of a precise plan to address it.
Los Angeles Times Trump defined as “a misinformed superficial, vindictive and selfish man who seems unable to quell the urge to lash out at critics, political opponents and anyone else who hurt his vanity.”
Mexico should see it as a real danger to the country. And the world, as a subject who can put the fragile global stability at risk. And if you still doubt that evil can become reality, just I remind you to re-read “The black swan” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, where the impossible can happen.
Traductor de Google para empresas:Google Translator ToolkitTraductor de sitios webGlobal Market Finder